Saturday, August 9, 2008

Helen's Olympic no-show = early election?

It's curious why Helen Clark didn't attend the Olympic games opening ceremony. I saw Kevin Rudd,  Sarkozy, Bush and a number of other country leaders on the big screen.  There is an immense amount of pride when you see your Olympic team enter the stadium and it's surprising Helen Clark didn't take the opportunity to be associated with that.
 
One possible reason is that she's planning for an early election.
 
 
 

On English and Key

 
It is Key's loose-lipped talk, coupled with the rather too frank comments that English sometimes makes about him, that would have persuaded his opponents that the deputy would be a rich candidate for entrapment. Who can forget his priceless "I'm a stayer, he's a sprinter. I grind away, John just bounces from one cloud to another"?
I blogged this week that English's 'loose' comments about John Key were more a reflection of his style rather any split between the two.  Fran's column above throws doubt on my theory.  She speculates there is an 'ideological rift' between Key and English and that English will eventually roll Key for the prime ministership. 
 
Having leadership ambitions and differences in opinion are fine - even healthy - just as long as English doesn't under mind his leader.  So in light of Fran's column I've a couple of concerns about Bill English:
- English rates himself too highly evident by his comment that Brash and Key don't fully understand WfF
- Even though English said he'd never be leader again when he first became deputy, he still harbours leadership ambitions
- Combining the two above equals an un-contented deputy leader
 
I wonder whether Key made the right choice when he made English his deputy/finance minister.  So given my concerns I reckon Don Brash would've been the better choice for deputy/finance minister and keep Bill English as education spokesperson where he was doing an excellent job.  Brash would've been ideal for the job because after his failed bid for PM and his age - he'd have no desire to be leader again.
 
 
 

Thursday, August 7, 2008

Trouble at mill for Gordon Brown

 
However he will do so against the background in which for the first time since he faced Tony Blair, a genuine rival has emerged.
 
Gordon Brown spent the good part of decade hounding Tony Blair for the Premiership and destabilizing his government as a consequence.  So now the boot is finally on somebody else's foot - the Blairite David Miliband. 
 
'Poetic justice' some may say. 
 
Brown is now so obviously the underdog that I'm starting to think better of him.  Funny how that is.
 
 
 

Key hits the nail on the head

Mr. Key said Miss Clark could "go for it" but National would be running a positive campaign.

"If she's going to do everything from rort the electoral law, to get (journalist and author) Nicky Hager to listen into our emails, to go out there and get young Labour affiliates to be bugging our personal conversations, well that's her style of politics."
 
Here Here!  To recap Labour dirty deeds (in chronological order IIRC);
 
- the release confidential MFAT meeting notes
- rort of the electoral law (defined as a corrupt practice in the law)
- exploiting hundreds of National's stolen emails
- Labour affiliated John Key attack blog "The Standard"
- Labour affiliated National attack blog "08wire"gb
- secret recordings
 
There are likely to be many more instances such as the fact John Key's rubbish has been searched on multiple occasions.  Now much of the above can't be inextricability linked to Labour but it's all rather covenant 
 
There are a couple of possibilities for all of this; 
 
- Labour activists are even more psychotic and 'on to to it' than anyone thought and don't need guidance from their idols on the 9th floor - who are oblivious to what is going on.
- Labour are only casually aware.....
- Labour orchestrates and drives the whole operation from the 9th floor. 
 
I suspect it's a mixture of the latter two.  Some of the authors for the attack blogs work for Labour in the beehive!
 
You can learn much about a person by how they treat their enemies.  I can't even remotely consider voting for Labour until they ditch these dirty practices or at least condemn them for what they are. 
 
A change in style is exactly why I'm voting for John Key - regardless of how many dead rats/fishs he swallows.
 
 
 
 

Tuesday, August 5, 2008

'The Standard' gone by lunchtime.....

.... well maybe not by lunchtime, but maybe after the election.
 
 
In 2005, National gifted Labour the 'gone by lunchtime' comment.
 
It's rather pointless correcting information on 'The Standard' - there are none so blind as those who will not see (plus the authors work for Helen).  Anyway, the quote above is wrong. 
Helen and Phil Goff broke a very important convention by using the notes taken by a junior MFAT (ministry of foreign affairs and trade) official during the meeting between Dr Brash, Lockwood Smith and visiting US senators.  Even if Lockwood or Brash said the comment, the context is unknown - it may have been a joke or on another topic all together.  That is why you don't release what is meant to be confidential meeting notes (Goff only release a partial account).
 
As a consequence political parties no longer trust MFAT officials - another Labour legacy - which is a real shame.
 
Labour's willingness to use confidential notes, stolen emails, and secret recordings point to how dubious and dirty that party is under H1 and H2 - which is my 'hot button' issue for why I'm not voting Labour.
 
 
 

Paul Holmes on Bill English

 
The secret recordings of Bill English and Dr Lockwood Smith reveal nothing new but perhaps the realities of being in opposition.  However, as Paul Holmes said, Mr English's comments show a lack of respect toward John Key.  This is concerning but you've got to put it into context with English's style.  His tone can often be interpreted as disparaging but is unlikely to reflect what he really thinks. 
The evidence for this is the fact he is held in high regard within the National caucus.  What this highlights is that English isn't a very good communicator - which is a major reason why he didn't do too well in the 2002 election. 
This does not change the fact he's a highly competent MP and finance spokesperson.  He has an excellent grasp of the detail.  He made an excellent education spokesperson under Dr Brash. 
 
One positive from all of this is that John Key is really shining at crisis management - getting on top of the situation really quickly with his message sorted.
 
On a general note - it's pretty sad someone snuck in a microphone and recorded private chats.  A similar thing happened at Labour's conference during a more 'public' Q & A'  with Mike Williams.  Wonder if Labour's fingerprints are on this...?
 

Editoral: Debt now key election issue

^ fair enough.   The main argument against borrowing is the cost of the interest, while the argument for borrowing is the potential for the new asset to generate income.  For example; A business may go into debt to pay for an extension to their shop with the idea the extra floor space will generate more profits which will ultimately benefit the business.

Each argument is just as valid so there is no right or wrong.  National is for borrowing while Labour claims to be against borrowing. 

If Labour want to make this an election issue, they're going to have to be far more convincing.  To make their case they should declare an aim to reduce debt to 15% of GDP, necessitating the need to keep taxes high.  Their key messages would be the savings resulting from the reduction in interest payments and the fact more money stays in NZ.

 As Labour stands at the moment with a plan to cut taxes by $10.5 billion and keep debt at around 20% of GDP - they don't have the platform to mount such a campaign without being called hypocrites. 

 


Sunday, August 3, 2008

Aussie Labor keep troops in Iraq....

One of Kevin Rudd's major election planks has just gone by the wayside:

THE 1000 Australian soldiers, sailors and air force personnel in and around Iraq will be there "for a long time to come", Defence Minister Joel Fitzgibbon has warned.... That completes a comprehensive adjustment of the ALP's policy on Iraq and a significant shift from the impression created by Labor in opposition that Australia's role in Iraq was all but over.

Obama is currently campaigning to withdraw troop from Iraq.  All bets are off on this one.

 

 

Friday, August 1, 2008

Republicanism by Stealth..... QCs no more

 
The title Senior Counsel replaces Queen's Counsel under a law that came into force today and Attorney-General Michael Cullen has convened a selection panel for the first appointments. 
 

Labour's continual harping on about National's a secret agenda is really just a cover for their own secret agendas; one of them being republicanism by stealth.   

Labour has made a number of subtle changes over the years, removing crowns from logos, ditching the Privy Council, Knighthoods, and the word 'royal' where ever possible.  Now it appears Labour are ditching Queens Counsel, the designation for top lawyers, for Senior Counsel.

 

These terms and traditions are just as much part of our culture as they are part of British culture.  So when Labour changes these traditions to meaningless, bland, PC alternatives without consultation, they are taking away part of who we are.  Even if NZ became a republic there would be in harm in keeping the historic terminology. 

 

The surreptitious way this Labour government operates, practically those on the 9th floor, is a major reason why they're getting the boot come 2008!

 
 

Thursday, July 31, 2008

My take on the Republican movement

 
TheRepublican Movement has announced its top 10 nominees for the first President of New Zealand.

 
It's hard to articulate why I favour our current status quo i.e. Queen as head of state.  My opinion is evolving over time.
 
The advantages of kinship and  friendship have been debunked.  Just ask anyone who have tired to get a UK visa. 
 
Economically there doesn't appear to be any advantage for being a sovereign nation.  Great Britain's trade agreement with the European Economic Community put an end to that. 
 
Traditionally the UK is the first port of call for any New Zealanders heading overseas, but since the EU enlargement many of the jobs we use to get have been taken by the Polish.
 
So what reasons does that leave for why NZ should stay a sovereign nation? 
 
1.  Everyone knows the Queen and the British royals.  This gives a small country like NZ prominence of the world stage when they visit.
2.  Uniqueness.  Republics are a dime a dozen.  Only 16 nations can claim to be a realm of the commonwealth; it adds to our character.
3.  Politics.  Having a head of state above political influence is refreshing.  Even though the Government General is appointed by the government (with the Queen's approval).  Governments come and go, having a fixed family as head of state is like a constitutional anchor.
4.  History. 
5.  The New Zealand's fascination with the royals; better inside than out. 
 
The reasons above are not as good as the used to be i.e. economic and immigration wise.  But they are good enough to justify remaining a sovereign nation.  I don't accept David Farrar's reasoning that we should become a republic in order to enhance our constitution (due to Labour's disregard for convention) because we can do this anyway through entrenching certain laws. 
 
 
 

Michael Cullen on John Key adopting Working for Families

 
"What I liken this to is imagine Santa Clause sitting down and hacking into your kids bank account, transferring money out of your kids bank accounts in to his, then buying you a present with them.  And you suppose to fill grateful for that".

 
The statement above was typed out word for word from Dr Cullen's piece on One News.  It a breathtaking display of hypocrisy given that Interest Free Student loans, Working for Families, and 20 hours free child care are essentially taken out of your bank account and given back to you in Labour gift wrapping.  These policies that Cullen has introduced are going to be very hard for any government to drop and will only increase in cost as time goes on.  They were introduced to win votes in the short term.
Tax cuts on the other hand stimulate the economy by offering a reward for the hour's you've worked.  
 
On the surface John Key's decision to adopt the full WfF is disappointing.  However, as David Farrar pointed out, to develop an alternative policy without the aid of government departments is difficult.  WfF would've been developed over a period of years by experts in the public service at a considerable cost to the taxpayer.  So with that in mind it makes sense to keep the policy until you have the government departments at your disposal to develop something better (and least intrusive). 
 
 

Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Three news Journalism or lack of it

Known for Don Brash's race relations rant four years ago, tonight it was John Key's turn. However this time it was not for any policy announcement, but rather the fact that he apparently did not want the media there to cover it.

TV three's political coverage is often schizophrenic but this story was particularly annoying. 

1.  What was the point of the story?

2.  Where do they get off calling Don Brash's race relations speech a 'rant' - an emotive word which conveys an opinion.  They should just stick to the news and let the viewer form an opinion. 

Siding with Winston Peter's is like making a pack with the devil, but he does have a point about political journalism in this country.  And TV one isn't any better - remember their shocking story that someone in the National Party wasn't a fully signed up climate change believer. 

Don Brash , TV 3 , Journalism  

 

Thursday, July 10, 2008

Helen's out of date!

...... car wise. 
 
The picture below is of BMW's new 7-series.   It goes on sale in the UK on 15 November 2008 - which coincidentally (or ironically) is one of the proposed election dates. 
 
Looks a nice car too - leaner than the current 7-series.  Though, on first impression, I don't like the tail lights and the oversized kidney grill.
 
 

Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Helen has no time for personal activities

 
 

While John Key shared quality time with his family in Omaha and Bill English mixed pleasure with business in Samoa, there was no time for holidays in Labour-land.

To rub in the point, Helen Clark said of her National rivals: "They do tend to work pretty short weeks and years in my experience. I've found this job is pretty all-consuming."

 
In her attempt to have a dig at John Key and Bill "clever man" English over the hours they work, I think she casts herself in a negative light.  I would like the PM of New Zealand to maintain a work/life balance, just like anyone else.  If the PM has no time for herself, then to me that shows she's not working efficiently, or delegating appropriately, or is creating work for herself (she has to 'look after' the country). 
Don Brash was also renowned for his workaholic nature.  The difference with him is that he wasn't one to gloat about it, or more tellingly, use it for a personal attack.
 
 

Saturday, July 5, 2008

Helen Clark's foreign affair expertise is a myth

 
 

At the 60th anniversary dinner, Israeli ambassador Yuval Rotem delivered a strong message that Israel wants New Zealand to stand up for human rights around the world.

The subtext (delivered more directly in a subsequent official foreign affairs consultation in Wellington) was that New Zealand should take a more condemnatory approach to Iran, not just beat-up on Israel.  

I reckon Helen's much touted foreign affairs expertise is nothing more than a farce.  On the big issues such as Israel, a nuclear armed Iran, Iraqi situation, and Mugabe - Helen Clark is either silent or a vocal critic at best.  She offers no solutions, and she's not prepared to go out on a limit - just repeat her stock UN line.
 
But Downer is expected to be confirmed soon as special UN envoy for Cyprus and will continue to be a public voice on foreign affairs through his new blog.  Read it - it's probably the closest you'll get to obtaining a true conservative perspective than anything served up by National here.
 
I must find his blog and add it to my RSS feed reader.  And I agree with Fran O'Sullivan's point that National has a 'lily-livered' approach to foreign affairs.  But to do otherwise would invite Helen to accuse National of being an American puppet.  Helen has no qualms about damaging our relationship with the US in order to score cheap political points (referring to the 2005 election).
 
 

John Roughan on KiwiSaver

 
 

The scheme celebrated its first birthday on Tuesday with 718,000 members - more than double the number predicted in the first year. The only people complaining about it are those annoying economists who see the difference between individual gains and the national welfare.

They fear the scheme will not add to total personal savings, merely displace previous savings schemes.

In the Herald last weekend Maria Slade reported an estimate that as little as 9 per cent of the money in KiwiSaver accounts so far is new saving, a percentage the researcher reckoned would not cover the administration and compliance costs of the scheme.

Westpac economist Dominick Stephens said KiwiSaver had cost the taxpayers $497 million in its first 11 months, an amount that could have added to national savings if it had been left in the Budget's fund for future public pensions.

Even that fund is questioned by some savings professionals who point out that a superannuation scheme is only as good as the future economy that will have to pay out. From that point of view, the best retirement insurance is the investment made in the economy today.

Anyone who believes that the best investments are made by those who stand to lose if they get it wrong would argue the economy would be stronger in the long run if the KiwiSaver incentives were turned into personal tax cuts.

I generally try to avoid cut and pasting so much from an article, but John Roughan's points are irrefutable! 
I'm a signed-up member of KiwiSaver just because the incentives are too good to pass up.  Now some people like KiwiSaver because it locks away their savings so they can't touch it. 
So why don't they give people the choice... Kiwisaver for those who want their savings locked away & a tax refund for those who want to put the money into their own savings account.  I'd take the latter option. 
 
 
 

Secret agendas works both ways....

 
 

Had Labour given an inkling at the last election of the premium they have had to pay to re-nationalise the railway, and the fortune it is going to cost to cover its likely losses, National's last campaign would have feasted on the information.

But now that the deed is done, the politics have changed. The purchase is the status quo and National will not dare put re-privatisation before the electorate this year, though that may be what it ultimately does with the trains if not the tracks.

 John Roughan is right.  I can't remember anti-smacking, Kiwisaver, or re-nationalising the railway being on Labour's agenda last election.  
So all the unreasonable demands for National to reveal what they'll do in government should be meet with the question 'what the hell will Labour do?'.
 
 
 
 

Friday, July 4, 2008

Obama moves to the centre......

 
 
We're beginning to understand why Barack Obama keeps protesting so vigorously against the prospect of "George Bush's third term." Maybe he's worried that someone will notice that he's the candidate who's running for it.

The Bush policies I want Obama to adopt are free trade and a commitment to Iraq.  Fingers crossed. 
So with that in mind perhaps the best outcome for the US election would be Obama in the White House and a republican controlled congress.
 
Hit tip:  The Hive via Kiwiblog 
 
 
 

An insite into David Cameron

 
 
Put this or other choices on tax or climate change or social justice or social responsibility to a member of Team Cameron and they soon reply "Ah but he is a pragmatist". 
He sounds like a person who has been on a long political journey to get to where he is; the leader of the Conservatives.  Some interesting parallels with John Key.   
 
John Key and David Cameron represent modern conservatives, the future for their political philosophy and consequently our future.  They're socially liberal and concerned with social justice, but see them as secondary to providing effective, efficient government that doesn't squash personal responsibility and individual freedoms.
 
US conservatives (the Republicans) aren't quite their yet.  Which is why loosing to Obama could be the best thing for them. 
 

 

Wednesday, July 2, 2008

TV3 reports that Clark got it wrong!

 
"Can I assure her that neither I, nor my family trust, was an owner of shares in Tranz Rail at that time, and she has misled the House."

Miss Clark made no comment, taking the back route out of Parliament. Through a spokesman she says she accepts Mr Key's word. He now wants her to say sorry.

"Sorry would be nice, but I won't hold my breath," says Mr Key.

Heh - Labour's most aggressive line of attack for a while, delivered by the PM herself (instead of Cosgrove, or Cullen, or Goff) turns out to be complete rubbish.  I'm pleased channel three reported this because channel one certainly didn't and after such an intense battle in parliament one was left wondering. 
 
The thing is even if the PM's allegations were true, a man like Mr Key would have shares all over the place so it's hardly a demonstrated conflict of interest.  A real scandal would be if Mr Key had invested all his shares in one basket....and then said something so their value increased - which didn't happen of course (much to the PM's disappointment). 
 
This is the first time the PM has fronted the attack, so it'll be interesting to see how the public reacts.  To me it looks like she's clutching at screws big time!